In 1977, former Israeli Foreign Minister Abba Eban explained, “…history is the enemy of the Arab-Israeli reconciliation. The past is the adversary of the future. The vision that Arabs deduce form their history has never included the idea of a Jewish sovereignty in the heart of the Middle East…” Such attitudes can be overcome to the extent that a bilateral peace treaty becomes possible, as they were in Egypt and Jordan. However, in a weak state with a weak government, not to mention a fairly large share of the population that is radicalized, the effort could prove much more daunting.

Lebanon’s Internal Dynamics:

Lebanon rests on a fragile, often uneasy, balance between diverse religious groups. The religious balance continues to shift toward an increasing Muslim majority and a shrinking Christian minority. Muslims include Shia, Sunnis, and Druze. Christians include Maronites, Roman Catholics, and Greek Orthodox. As a result of its diverse population, the Library of Congress’ Country Study on Lebanon explains, “sectarianism (or confessionalism) is the dominant social, economic, and political reality. Divisiveness has come to define that which is Lebanon… While Muslims and Christians have lived together in Lebanon for over a century, their deep disagreements over the Lebanese political formula and state make it unrealistic to treat all Lebanese as members of one social unit… Lebanon’s somewhat peculiar political system has reinforced sectarian identification and consciousness.” The report adds, “Each sect has its own set of personal status laws… The confessional system of personal-status laws strengthens the role of communal religious leaders and impedes the evolution of Lebanese nationalist or universalist secular ideas.”

These dynamics translate into a weak government that might not be able to gain sufficient public support to conclude a peace treaty with Israel. With the Shia population, radicalized by longstanding support from Syria and Iran, now comprising up to 45% of Lebanon’s population, popular sentiment in Lebanon is likely to run against a peace treaty. The Christians alone could not conclude such an agreement without the risk of a fresh civil war.