At the same time, Lebanon’s internal dynamics also provide an ideal environment in which “state within a state” entities can flourish. In the 1970s, Palestinian terrorist groups enjoyed a large degree of autonomy and used Lebanon as a staging ground for cross-border terrorist attacks against Israel. From the late 1980s to the present, Hezbollah has dominated south Lebanon and launched terrorist attacks against Israel from there. Fresh from what it perceives to have been a “victory” on account of the inconclusive outcome from the recent combat between Israel and Hezbollah, Hezbollah is not likely to be very keen on efforts to bring about a bilateral Lebanon-Israel peace accord. Furthermore, even if Hezbollah could be persuaded by Lebanon’s Government to accept such a peace treaty, breakaway factions or newly-formed radical groups would likely have the ability to supplant Hezbollah in the absence of broad-based communal support for bilateral peace.

Regional Geopolitics:

Lebanon is likely to remain an important piece of a growing geopolitical struggle between the Middle East’s forces of “Rejectionism” and “Moderation.” Such a battle could put further strains on Lebanon’s weak government and divisive society.

Iran and Syria will continue to spearhead the Rejectionist element. Both have substantial influence with regard to Hezbollah. Syria still sees Lebanon as a historic part of “Greater Syria” and is vying to keep Lebanon within its sphere of influence. Syria could well attempt to use Lebanon as a bargaining chip for pursuing its own demands with Israel and avoiding increased diplomatic isolation. A bilateral Lebanon-Israel peace agreement would shrink the pool of the Middle East’s “confrontation states” and weaken Syrian regional influence. An erosion of Syrian influence could exacerbate internal pressures for reform within Syria.

Iran sees Lebanon’s Shia population as a natural base for expanding its Islamic Revolution and building a de facto Shia Caliphate that includes Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon, not to mention incorporating Shia populations spread across other Middle Eastern states and beyond. Moreover, its role is not incompatible with Syria’s political realities, as the Shia and minority Alawites have long cooperated against the Sunnis in Syria and Syria has aligned itself with Iran since 1980.